The government offensive in Syria and its implications

Moises Saab

EXPLODING bullets and the acrid smell of tolite marking a turn around of armed confrontations in Syria in favor of President Bashar Al-Assad have had the effect of stirring up a hornet’s nest in the Middle East and beyond.

Prior to the Syrian army’s taking of the western city of Qusayr, where irregular forces armed from abroad have a vital sanctuary, passions were contained and movements toward peace, on the basis of inequality on the ground, were advancing at a reasonable pace.

This situation has changed in the wake of a new reality in the theater of operations, prompted by the entry into the conflict of the Hezbollah (Arab Party of God) forces, the Lebanese armed militia famed for its combativeness. The taking of Qusayr set off alarm bells in various Arab Gulf States, which mobilized their influence to avert a disaster for the irregular forces and their liquidation.

One clear echo in this context was the suspension of diplomatic relations with Syria decreed by Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, in a public act in support of the anti-government forces operating in that country, made in public in a covered stadium in Cairo.

A mordantly humorous description of Morsi’s decree came in a phrase from a member of the Egyptian opposition who said that, for the first time in history, "someone had declared war in a football stadium!"

The Egyptian President’s inopportune decision was put down to reasons of internal politics and convenience, given the situation of the national economy, shored up by multi-million loans and deposits from the oil bearing countries of the Arabian Peninsula which are sponsoring the armed groups in Syria.

Morsi’s gesture is significant because after a visit to Russia in April, the Egyptian leader moderated his position on the Syrian conflict and stated his intention to contribute to a negotiated solution of the crisis from a more balanced perspective.

At the same time, the consequences of the offensive in various areas of Syria prompted increased criticism from the nations of the Arabian Peninsula. The offensives are not new, but are now opposed to their interests, implying the adoption of urgent measures related to military supplies for the irregulars, the materialization of which is questionable.

In direct contrast to the radicalization of the Arab monarchies is the significant care with which Jordan carried out the Eager Lion joint military maneuvers with the United States, the start of which in early June caused apprehension over the possible announcement of a direct military invasion of Syria.

If that intention was on the cards, it was neutralized by the crass errors of the armed groups, in their majority of extreme Islamist affiliation but, above all, by the firm position of Russia, where authorities have reiterated that they will not allow a repetition of what took place in Libya in 2011 and, eight years previously, in Iraq.

Since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Moscow, accompanied by China, has consistently opposed the efforts of the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council, the United States, France and the United Kingdom to adopt resolutions which would give an advantage to the opposition.

For Russia, the fall of Al Assad implies a situation favorable to the interests of the Western powers and their Arab allies which, in the short term, would mean abandoning an area which constitutes one of its flanks and hosts the headquarters of the sole friendly Mediterranean port for its navy.

In this context is inserted the immutable position of Iran: its contribution to a negotiated way out of the conflict on the basis of non-interference in Syrian sovereignty and the refusal to accept maximalist demands, in particular that of President Al-Assad’s exit.

For Europe, with a closer geographic proximity to the scene of conflict, the moment is more complex, given that its backing of the Syrian anti-government forces is in contradiction with its allegations of combating terrorism, as argued by France, a leading actor on the continent, in order to dispatch military units to Mali.

The dynamics of this scenario had an undeniable influence at the recent G-8 Summit, members of which spoke out for the initiation of peace talks on Syria as soon as possible, and where Russia also left its mark.