|
Challenges for the
next President of Egypt
Seven times Egyptians have gone to
the polls since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, in
February of 2011, and voted in two presidential
elections, the last of which was won by Army General
Abdel Fatah al Sisi - head of the army at the time
of the coup which deposed democratically elected
president Mohamed Morsi, last July.
|
An
Egyptian holding a poster of
presidential candidate Abdel Fatah al
Sisi. |
The 59 year old Al Sisi, enjoys much
support among some sectors of Egyptian society, for
having led the overthrow of Morsi. Al Sisi won more
than 96% of the vote (24 million votes), against his
sole rival, leftist politician Hamdín Sabbahi, who
only achieved 3% (some 800,000 votes) in elections
in which less than 50% of those eligible to vote
participated. The Presidential inauguration is
scheduled for June 7, according to Egyptian
newspapers.
In the search for stability post
Mubarak, Al Sisi must face various challenges and
problems covering all aspects of daily life in Egypt,
the biggest country in the Arab world, which has
deteriorated over the last turbulent three years.
An unstable
economy
Repairing the country’s economy will
be the new government’s most difficult challenge,
given the current situation. The fiscal deficit and
public debt have spiraled from 2011 to date,
reaching 14% and almost 100% of The Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), respectively. Foreign investment
diminished due to political instability and
insecurity. One quarter (25.2%) of the population
lives below the poverty line; unemployment is
approximately 13%, of which 70% are between the ages
of 15 and 29.
"These two socially explosive
problems are among the main issues which ignited
popular revolt against Mubarak, and both have
gotten worse in the last three years," warned Cairo
economist Mohammed Samhouri, in a report published
in the online newspaper
Sada.
To make matters worse,
instability and insecurity have damaged the tourist
industry (which accounts for 11.3% of the GDP and
provides 12.5% of employment) to the extent that
2013 was described by the government as the "worst
year (for the industry) in the recent history." What
is more, since Morsi’s defeat, a significant portion
of the little money Egypt has comes from its allies
in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
What Egypt is providing in exchange for this
financial assistance (some 20 billion dollars in the
last 10 months), and how long it will last, is still
unknown.
Subsidies
vs. support
Any long term economic solution
implies some sort of cut in the numerous state
subsidies, primarily to bread and fuel, which
account for almost one third of the national budget.
Writing in the Australian newspaper
The Sydney Morning Herald, Adel Abdel Ghafar,
an expert in Arab issues at the Australian National
University, commented, "Any cuts to subsidies will
be politically costly and require a social consensus,
which currently seems impossible to achieve."
Army
interests
Although popular, having the
powerful military on his side does not ensure Al
Sisi a promising future. The institution has its own
economic empire and any reform could affect its
interests, which encompass 40% of the total Egyptian
economy, according to the UK newspaper
The
Guardian.
Extremist
groups
Since July 3, to date, more than
1,400 people, the majority Morsi supporters,
have been killed by police and soldiers, according
to France Presse. In response to this violent
oppression, directed mainly against the Muslim
Brotherhood and its followers, jihad insurgents have
increased attacks against military forces. Although
the violence has been concentrated in the Sinai
Peninsula, there have also been several
confrontations in Cairo. In the last 10 months since
the coup d'état, extremist attacks have left more
than 500 dead, according to Spanish newspaper El
Mundo. The majority of attacks have been
perpetrated by Ansar Beit al Maqdis.
The interim government has tried a
heavy handed approach, to no avail. Al Sisi has
promised more of the same. (Granma International
news staff)
|
