Felipe VI began his reign in Spain amid difficult economic circumstances and a turbulent citizens movement calling for a referendum, to decide between a monarchic State and a Republic.

The new King of Spain Felipe VI and Queen Doña Leticia. Photo: AP.

With the abdication law taking effect, published in the Official State Bulletin, at midnight on June 19, Juan Carlos de Borbón’s son Felipe was pronounced King of Spain, after his father abdicated on June 2, 2014.

Key to his reign should be the political evolution of Spanish society over the next 15 months - until the general elections - the time period available to the monarchist parties to reverse the monarchy’s downward spiral. These elections should solve the current dilemma, given that 90% of parliamentarians support the Crown and a growing citizen’s movement calling for a referendum to decide the type of state Spaniards want, a proposal supported by 62% of the population, according to polls.

The warning sign came with the European parliamentary elections May 25, 2014 - when the People’s Party (PP) and Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) suffered a significant defeat – now, with more than 80% of parliamentary representatives in support of the monarchy.

If the current voting trends are to be believed, both organizations will not hold 50% of the seats after the general elections in September 2015, only 15 months after the coronation of the new king.

Both the United Left and Podemos – the third and fourth ranked parties respectively, by number of votes in the European elections - support along with other political organizations the drafting of a new Constitution to abolish the constitutional monarchy approved in a 1978 referendum.

Felipe VI’s future therefore depends on the PP and PSOE’s ability to overcome their lack of support – and if the IU and Podemos can, with allied forces, capitalize on the trend reflected in the May 25 elections.

Another important question is whether the PSOE leadership – the main opposition party – can neutralize, by then, an incipient revolt within its ranks by sectors which, at the very least, should support the referendum proposal.

PSOE Secretary General Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba could appeal to party discipline to secure the vote in favor of the replacement of party representatives who, he himself admitted, have deep republican roots.

Rubalcaba explained that the problem is that the PSOE is part of the 1978 consensus which facilitated the transition of power from Dictator Francisco Franco (1939-1975) with the acceptance of the constitutional monarchy as a formula for stability at a difficult moment.

The youngest sectors of the party don’t show the same commitment to that decision and the development of this sector will also have an important influence on future events.

It also remains to be seen if the economic recovery - which the government purports to be underway to bring the country out of crisis which has affected both the PP and PSOE and the credibility of the whole system - does materialize.

With Felipe VI, the Royal Palace will gain new faces and get rid of figures linked to corruption cases which resulted in the population giving the crown a confidence rating of 3.7 of 10, in a poll conducted by the Presidential ministry’s Social Research Center.

The republican movement has support from non-political sectors, such as the world of culture, which published a statement yesterday, June 25, questioning how the head of state can be changed without listening to the opinions of citizens.

"The state model approved in 1978," the document states, "need not be considered unchangeable or eternal, because we live in the 21st century and a state should not be inherited as a private estate.