ON September 22, only the German population voted, but the results have an effect across Europe. Berlin is the "Holy See" of the policies of austerity, and the inquisitors of the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund were crossing their fingers for the white smoke announcing the reelection of Angela Merkel.

The initial results indicate that their prayers have been answered. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won more than 44% of the votes, the Party’s best result in decades, very close to an absolute majority in the Bundestag (Lower Chamber), the composition of which determines the executive.

In German history, this has only happened once, with the government of Konrad Adenauer in 1957. But if the CDU does not obtain the necessary majority, it must form a coalition with other political parties to form a government.

And this is where things become interesting. Merkel cannot have another edition of her 2009 coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP), whose vote plummeted to 4.7% and will not be represented in Parliament for the first time in 50 years. The FDP vote did not reach the 5% needed to be represented in the Bundestag.

The surprise of the day, meanwhile, was the anti-Europe Alternative for Germany (AfD) which, with 4.9% of the vote, is close to the minimum required to enter Parliament and becoming a force in the country.

The aggressively Euro-critical and neoliberal line of this party, founded just seven months ago, divided and debilitated the right and liberalism. Although many AfD members come from the ranks of the Christian Democrats, their radical position in relation to Germany’s exit from the Eurozone raises a wall, at first glance impenetrable, against a possible alliance with Merkel, but nothing can be taken for granted.

Likewise, on the other end of the political spectrum, there is no apparent bloc which could turn around close to a decade of the German Chancellor at the helm of the country.

The Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the principal opposition party, won 25.4% of seats in the Bundestag, close to 3% less than in 2009. Its seats, added to those of the environmentalist Green Party (8.1%) and the Left Party (Linkspartie, 8.2%), could be sufficient for these to stand up and establish a coalition.

The only problem is that, historically, the SPD has been reluctant to form an alliance with the Left Party. The Social Democratic candidate, Peer Steinbruck, made that clear during his electoral campaign. In his opinion, the left has insurmountable internal divisions and a "non-realizable" economic policy.

The Left Party proposals to protect the welfare state, nationalize key economic sectors and withdraw German troops from Afghanistan are seen as heresy within a Social Democratic Party which is becoming less and less distinguishable from the conservatives. In fact, specialists agree that the most probable outcome is another link between the CDU and the SPD, as was the case in 2005, with Merkel heading this alliance.

Steinbruck himself has experience with this formula, given that he was the current Chancellor’s Minister of Economy during her first government.

What no one doubts at this stage of the game is that Merkel continues to be the most influential woman in Germany. Europe and the whole world depend on this doctor of quantum chemistry, 59 years of age, raised in the German Democratic Republic, who entered politics after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The economic crisis in Europe and the role which the most powerful economy of the European Union (EU) must assume to solve it was a central issue during the electoral campaign.

In recent months, Merkel has defended to the hilt European integration and the common currency, despite the flight from her party of people who believe Germany should take responsibility for its own affairs and leave the other EU countries to their fate.

At the close of the campaign, Merkel affirmed that a single currency is not only good for Germany, but is in Germany’s essential interest.

"It guarantees our prosperity and assures our jobs."

And the Chancellor is not wrong there. Economists agree that the German export sector, the third largest in the world behind China and the United States, benefits from a weaker currency, shared by countries far less developed, such as Spain and Greece.

However, what would seem to work for Germany is an impossible burden for the countries of southern Europe, which have been hit by the worst economic crisis since the post-war period.

As the international agency Oxfam recently noted, if economic measures implemented to date, the number of Europeans living in poverty could increase by 15 to 25 million by 2025.

The German success could be its own worst enemy if Spaniards, Greeks, and Portuguese, among others, begin to associate their misfortunes with the rise of a new German empire. The memory of two World Wars is still present to shock the most incredulous.

Merkel appears to be aware of this reality. "Germany can only benefit in the long term if things go well in Europe," she assured during the campaign.