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Where is Egypt going?
In order to attempt to understand
the events and what this country’s future could be,
Granma consulted two experts on the Middle East
Dalia González
Delgado
SOME
images of Cairo portray it as a city at war. After
the violence unleashed August 14, which left more
than 600 dead and 3,000 injured, tensions has not
diminished. In a polarized country, with various
forces fighting each other, and a population of
approximately 82 million inhabitants, it is
difficult to predict with certainty what will happen
in the next few days or weeks.
Events in Egypt are passing through a stage of
confused internal fighting, Ernesto Gómez Abascal,
diplomat and researcher, who has acted as Cuban
ambassador in a number of Middle Eastern nations,
commented to Granma.
He
believes, “Neither of the two major forces
confronting each other in Egypt has a program to
resolve the serious problems of the people. It seems
to me that there is no left-wing alternative at the
moment, while hopefully, one will emerge from the
struggle.”
On
the one hand, “the military leaders, while there
could be exceptions, are highly committed to the
United States, which has spent a long time working
on them and, in particular, financing them. I think
they will support a way out with traditional
policies that are not hostile to the West and are
definitely disposed not to create problems with
Israel.”
On
the other hand, although the Muslim Brotherhood has
popular backing, “it does not have an absolute
majority and could create many problems, or even
take things to the brink of a civil war,” Abascal
observed.
Reinaldo Sánchez Porro, a professor at the
University of Havana, holds a similar view, and
pointed to the road Egypt could take “after a civil
war which seems inevitable.”
In
his view, there could be a radical Islamic
revolution; the military, nationalists, secular
citizens ad the left could win out over these
Islamic sectors over time; or steps could be taken
toward a progressive revolution, which implies
structural changes.
“But, for now, the country is divided in to two
parts, which are progressively distancing themselves
from a possible reconciliation, as can be seen in
the huge demonstrations in favor of or against
Morsi’s defeated government, while the army is
utilizing force and consolidating its centennial
hegemony.”
The
current political instability could also have
regional implications. “Egypt is a hinge country
within the Arab world, the most highly populated and
influential in regional political culture, and this
weight could pull its neighbors in one or another
direction,” the specialist noted.
THE
BROTHERHOOD IS MORE THAN ITS POLITICAL FACE
“While the secular society is accusing the Morsi
government of undertaking the country’s Islamization,
many Islamic sectors are reproaching it for the
opposite; in other words, that it failed to take
advantage of the opportunity to implement its
program of the re-Islamization of society,” Sánchez
Porro argued.
This
explains why the most radical Salafists of Al Nur,
who won 25% of the vote in the legislative
elections, have moved to oppose Morsi, “because they
wanted more, not less, political Islam.”
“The
Muslim Brotherhood won the elections in a clean
fight and this gives it an unobjectionable
legitimacy, which is both its strength and its
weakness, because now any possible acceptance of an
arrangement with the coup government would be seen
by many as a betrayal of this legitimacy and
principles.”
For
the University professor, it is important to take
into account that the social bloc formed by the
Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1928, with all its
current institutions of services to the community,
is much more than its political face, the Freedom
and Justice Party. Over the years, it has become a
movement of many currents, “some of them
practitioners of attacks and political violence
which, over time, accepted the electoral route which
is now closed to them after its victory. This could
provoke their return to a violent struggle for
power.”
WHAT
IS NOT SEEN
On
August 15, the United States announced the
cancellation of a joint military exercise with
Egypt. President Barack Obama stated that he had
ordered his team to evaluate the actions of the
interim government, and steps that could be taken if
necessary in relation to bilateral relations.
Last
week, U.S. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham
visited Cairo in an attempt to reinforce the
international mediation initiated by U.S. Deputy
Secretary of State William Burns, and European envoy
Bernadino León.
According to Abascal, “Lamentably, there is still no
popular, progressive, organized force to represent
an alternative power.” Thus, the United States and
the other Western countries can afford themselves
the luxury of selecting from the political forces
fighting for power, the one which would be most
docile to their interests.”
“Washington is following the principle – already
made public by Condoleezza Rice in her time – that
in those Middle Eastern countries where the U.S.
cannot exercise its domination, destruction,
division and internal wars have to be fomented to
weaken them,” he concluded.
Sánchez Porro stated, “The
United States and the European Union have maintained
a highly ambiguous position, trying to appear as if
they are not leaning toward one force or another
when it is known that, given their interests, they
have to be actively seeking the development which
most suits them, although we will have to wait for
another Snowden to learn exactly how they have tried
to manipulate the strings. In politics, as José
Martí said, the reality is what is not seen.”
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