|
Reflections of Fidel
The bells are tolling for the
dollar
(Taken from CubaDebate)
THE Empire dominated the world more through the
economy and lies than by force. It obtained the
privilege of printing convertible currency at the
end of World War II; it had a monopoly of nuclear
weapons; it had virtually all the gold in the world;
and was the only large-scale producer of productive
equipment, consumer goods, food and services at
global level. However, it did have a limit on
printing paper money: the backing of gold, at the
constant price of $35 per troy ounce. That was the
case for more than 25 years until, on August 15,
1971, via a presidential order from Richard Nixon,
the United States unilaterally broke that
international commitment by defrauding the world. I
shall insist on repeating that. In that way it
launched on the world economy its rearmament costs
and military adventures – in particular the Vietnam
war – which, in line with conservative calculations,
cost no less than $200 billion and the lives of more
than 45,000 young Americans.
More bombs were dropped on this little Third
World country than all of those used in the last
world war. Millions of people died or were mutilated.
When the conversion rate was suspended, the dollar
became a currency that could be printed at the will
of the U.S. government without the backing of a
constant value.
Treasury bonds and bills continued to circulate
as convertible currency; state reserves continued
nourishing themselves on those bills which, on the
one hand, served to acquire raw materials,
properties, goods and services from every part of
the world and, on the other, privileged U.S. exports
in the face of other economies of the planet. Time
and time again, politicians and academics refer to
the real cost of that suicidal war, admirably
described in the film by Oliver Stone. People tend
to make calculations as if the millions were the
same. They do not usually take note of the fact that
the millions of dollars of 1971 are not the same as
the millions of 2009.
One million dollars today, when gold – a metal
whose value has been the most stable throughout the
centuries – has a price in excess of $1,000 per troy
ounce, is worth approximately 30 times what it was
worth when Nixon suspended the conversion rate. In
2009, $6 trillion is equivalent to $200 billion in
1971. If this is not taken into consideration, the
new generations will have no idea of imperialist
barbarism.
In the same way, when one speaks of the $20
billion invested in Europe at the end of World War
II – in virtue of the Marshall Plan for
reconstructing and controlling the principal
European powers that had the necessary workforce and
technical culture for the rapid development of goods
and services – people usually ignore the fact that
the real value of what was invested at that time by
the empire is equivalent to a current value of $600
billion. They do not note that today, $20 billion
would barely stretch to building three large oil
refineries capable of supplying 800,000 barrels of
gasoline per day, in addition to other oil
derivatives.
The consumer societies, the absurd and capricious
waste of energy and natural resources that are
currently threatening the survival of the species,
would not be explicable in such a brief historical
period if one is unaware of the irresponsible manner
in which developed capitalism, in its superior phase,
has ruled the destinies of the world.
That astounding waste explains why the two most
industrialized countries of the world, the United
States and Japan, are indebted to approximately $20
trillion.
Of course the U.S. economy has an annual gross
domestic product of $15 trillion. The crises of
capitalism are cyclical, as the history of the
system irrefutably demonstrates, but this time it is
about something more: a structural crisis, as
Professor Jorge Giordani, Venezuelan minister of
planning and development, explained to Walter
Martínez in the latter’s Telesur program last night.
News agency reports circulated today, Friday
October 9, add irrefutable data. An AFP cable from
Washington notes that the budget deficit of the
United States in the fiscal year 2009 is rising to
$1.4 trillion, 9.9% of the GDP, "something unseen
since 1945, at the end of World War II," it adds.
The deficit in 2007 was one third of that figure.
High deficit figures are expected for the years
20010, 2011 and 2012. That huge deficit is
fundamentally determined by the U.S. Congress, to
save that country’s major banks, to prevent
unemployment rising above 10% and to pull the United
States out of recession. It is logical that if they
flood the nation with dollars, the large commercial
chains will sell more merchandise, industries will
increase production, fewer citizens will lose their
homes, the unemployment tide will stop rising, and
Wall Street shares will increase in value. However,
the world can no longer return to what it was. The
economist Paul Krugman, an eminent Nobel Prize
winner, has just affirmed that international trade
has suffered its greatest fall, worse than that of
the Great Depression, and has expressed doubts on
its recovery in the short term.
Nor can the world be inundated with dollars and
think that those bills without backing in gold will
maintain their value. Other economies, today more
solid, have emerged. The dollar is no longer the
hard currency reserve of all states; on the contrary,
its holders wish to move away from that currency,
while as far as possible avoiding its devaluation
before they can get rid of it.
The European Union euro, the Chinese yuan, the
Swiss franc, the Japanese yen – despite that
country’s debts – even the pound sterling, together
with other hard currencies, have moved to take the
place of the dollar in international trade. Gold
metal is once again becoming an important
international reserve currency.
This is not a capricious personal opinion, nor do
I wish to slander that currency.
Another Nobel Prize winner in economy, Joseph
Stiglitz, commented, according to one news agency,
that the most likely thing is that the green bill
will continue its decline. He stated this on October
6 at the IMF World Bank Joint Annual Meeting in
Istanbul. Violent repression could be noted in that
city. The event was greeted with broken windows in
the commercial sector and fires from Molotov
cocktails.
Other agencies talked of the fact that the
European countries are fearful of the negative
effect of the weakness of the dollar compared to the
euro and the consequences of that on European
exports. The U.S. treasury secretary stated that his
country "was interested in a strong dollar."
Stiglitz made fun of an official statement and
stated, according to EFE: "In the case of the United
States money has been squandered and the reason has
been the multimillion rescue of the banks and
defraying the cost of wars like that of Afghanistan."
EFE reported that the Nobel Prize winner "insisted
that instead of investing $700 billion to help
bankers, the United States should have directed part
of that money into helping the developing countries
which, at the same time, would have stimulated
global demand."
Robert Zoellick, president of the World Bank,
raised the alarm a few days earlier, warning that
the dollar could not maintain its status as a
reserve currency indefinitely.
Kenneth Rogoff, an eminent professor of economics
at Harvard, stated that the next major financial
crisis will be that of "public deficits."
The World Bank declared that "the International
Monetary Fund has demonstrated that the central
banks of the world accumulated fewer dollars during
the second half of 2009 than at any other point in
the last 10 years and increased their euro holdings."
That very same October 6, AFP reported that gold
reached the record figure of $1,045 per ounce,
prompted by the weakening of the dollar and fears of
inflation.
The Independent newspaper of London published
that a group of oil producing countries were
studying the possibility of replacing the dollar in
commercial transactions with a basket of currencies
including the yen, the yuan, the euro, gold and a
new unified currency.
The news leaked or deduced with impressive logic
was refuted by some of the countries presumably
interested in that protection measure. They do not
want it [the dollar] to collapse, but neither do
they want to continue accumulating a currency that
has lost its value thirty-fold in less than 30 years.
I must mention a cable from the EFE agency, which
cannot be accused of being anti-imperialist and
which, in the current circumstances, includes
opinions of particular interest:
"Experts in economy and finance were in agreement
today in New York in affirming that the worst crisis
since the Great Depression has resulted in this
country playing a less significant role in the world
economy."
"The recession has led to the world changing its
way of looking at the United States. Our country is
now less significant than before and that is
something that we have to recognize," affirmed David
Rubenstein, president and founder of the Carlyle
Group, the largest risk capital company in the world,
addressing the World Business Forum."
"The financial world is going to be less centered
in the United States… New York is never again going
to be the world financial capital and that role will
be shared with London, Shanghai, Dubai, Sao Paulo
and other cities," he noted.
"…sort out the problems that the U.S. will
confront when it comes out of the ‘great recession,’
which will probably go another month or two."
"…’enormous public debt, inflation, unemployment,
loss in value of the dollar as a reserve currency,
energy prices…"
"The government must reduce public spending in
order to confront the debt problem and do something
that it doesn’t much like: increase taxes."
"Jeffrey Sachs, an economist at the University of
Columbia and UN special adviser, agreed with
Rubenstein that the economic and financial
predominance of the U.S. ‘is fading.’"
"We have left a system centered in the U.S. for a
multilateral one…"
"…’20 years of irresponsibility by the first part
of the Bill Clinton administration and then that of
George W. Bush,’ yielded to the pressures of Wall
Street…"
"…the banks negotiated with ‘toxic assets2 to
obtain easy money,’ Sachs explained."
"’The important thing now is to recognize the
unprecedented challenge that supposes achieving
sustainable economic development in line with the
basic physical and biological rules of this planet’…"
On the other hand, the direct news from our
delegation in Bangkok, capital of Thailand, was not
at all encouraging:
"The essential issue being discussed – our
minister of foreign affairs noted textually – is the
ratification or not of the concept of shared but
differentiated responsibilities between the
industrialized countries and the so-called emerging
economies, basically China, Brazil, India and South
Africa, and the underdeveloped countries.
"China, Brazil, India, South Africa, Egypt,
Bangladesh, Pakistan and the ALBA are the most
active. In general terms, the majority of the Group
of 77, are holding to firm and correct positions.
"Figures being negotiated for the reduction of
carbon emissions do not correspond to those
calculated by scientists for keeping temperature
increases to a level below 2 degrees Celsius,
25-40%. At this point, negotiations are moving
around a reduction of 11-18%.
"The United States is not making any real effort.
It is only accepting a 4% reduction in relation to
the year 1990."
In the morning of today, October 9, the world
awoke to the news that the "good Obama" of the
enigma explained by the Bolivarian President Hugo
Chávez at the United Nations, has received the Nobel
Peace prize. I do not always agree with the
positions of that institution but I am obliged to
acknowledge at this moment in time, that – in my
view – it was a positive measure. It compensates for
the setback that Obama suffered in Copenhagen when
Rio de Janeiro and not Chicago was chosen as the
venue for the 2016 Olympics, which prompted irate
attacks from the extreme right.
Many people will say that he has not as yet won
the right to receive such a distinction. We would
like to see in the decision, more than a prize to
the president of the United States, a criticism of
the genocidal policy followed by more than a few
presidents of that country, who have brought the
world to the crossroads where it finds itself today;
an exhortation to peace, and the search for
solutions that will lead to the survival of the
species.

Fidel Castro Ruz
October 9, 2009
6.11 p.m.
Translated by Granma International
-
Reflections
oF
Fidel
|