A crucial month for Brazil, Bolivia
and Uruguay

Andrés Mora Ramírez

Presidential elections will be held during the month of October in Brazil (October 5) Bolivia (October 12) and Uruguay (October 26). These elections will add to those already held this year in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama and Colombia – the results of which, in general terms, allow for the continuation of trends seen in Latin America since the beginning of the century. The advance of the left and center-left, specifically in El Salvador and Costa Rica (but with relatively weak presidents given the composition of their respective congresses and limitations inherited from a neo-liberal model imposed 30 years ago); and in Panama and Colombia the ongoing predominance of right-wing groups divided among themselves, a result of their own contradictions and disputes, as evidenced in the case of President Juan Manuel Santos’ victory over Álvaro Uribe Vélez’s candidate.

Almost 40 million Brazilians have been lifted out of poverty under
the Workers Party governments.

From this perspective, the October elections are important since projected results from opinion polls, especially in Brazil and Uruguay, indicate the possibility that the progressive South American leadership, which has predominated over the last 10 years, may be threatened, or even split, by right-wing or center-right forces, or by pragmatic alliances - as for example, in Brazil, with the alliance between the "Greens" and agri-business companies in favor of Marina Silva’s candidacy.

Possible victories for the right-wing, in the coming electoral cycle could have important consequences on the process of Latin American integration, and, on the other hand, the post-neoliberal consensus which, at a regional and world level, has facilitated the unity of those favoring a multipolar international system.

In Brazil, given the political cost of the recent economic deceleration, and protests against the million dollar investments made to host the World Cup, President Dilma Roussef is facing the final stretch of her campaign with between 36% and 38% voter support, while support for her rivals has grown with some polls suggesting the possibility of a second round of voting (against Aécio Neves or Marina Silva) to decide the future president of this emerging South American power.

President Roussef maintains, as the foundation of her electoral message, the continuation of changes initiated by former President Lula da Silva and of achievements realized, in various spheres, during 12 years of Worker’s Party government - undeniable socio-economic, and above all human, accomplishments, which have allowed almost 40 million Brazilians to be lifted out of poverty.

In Uruguay, the Broad Front (FA) chose as presidential and vice presidential candidates, two figures with strong historic roots in the party: former President of Uruguay and first FA President, Tabaré Vázquez (2005-2010), and Raúl Fernando Sendic, son of National Liberation Movement – Tupamaros leader, Raúl Sendic Antonaccio. However, the polls don’t predict a simple outcome. The FA has lost voter support in the latest surveys (decreasing from 42% to 39%, between June and August); while support for the Red Party and its candidate, 41 year old lawyer Luis Lacalle Pou, son of former president Luis Alberto Lacalle, has increased (from 27% to 30% in the same period).

A win in the first round, according to these predictions, doesn’t seem easy, suggesting an intense political battle in the coming weeks.

The reelection of President Evo Morales (left) and his vice president, Álvaro García Linera appears imminent, thanks to a strengthening of the Indigenous and Cultural Revolution being realized in Bolivia. Photo: Efe.

A different scenario exists in Bolivia, where the reelection of President Evo Morales and his Vice President Álvaro García Linera, appears imminent. The polls reflect growing support for the Movement toward Socialism (MAS) which increased from 52% to 59%, far greater than the 15% to 17% achieved by opposition candidate Samuel Doria Medina.

What is behind this strong support for Evo Morales? Certainly the radical and profound nature of changes realized by the Indigenous and Cultural Revolution, as the President describes it, above all if compared with the neoliberal nightmare which preceded his election.

Beyond the limitations, contradictions and mistakes which the opposition – and even MAS militants and sympathizers - can point to, policies implemented by Morales and his team have allowed Bolivia to make unprecedented social and economic progress.

Katu Arkonada, a Basque intellectual who has studied and experienced the Bolivian process first hand, believes that the creation of a new post-neoliberal economic model, and its positive impact on the Bolivian people, are key to Morales’ high approval rating. Thanks to the nationalization of the country’s hydrocarbons, GDP increased from 9.5 billion dollars in 2005 to 30.38 in 2013.

Under a neoliberal government, public investment in 2005 was just 629 million dollars, which under Morales reached a record 3.78 billion, divided almost equally among investment in meeting social needs, infrastructure and productive development policies. The minimum wage increased; urban unemployment decreased; and extreme poverty was reduced (from 38.2% in 2005 to 21.6% in 2012), in addition to inequality (in 2005 the income gap of the wealthiest 10% was 128 times that of the poorest 10%, while by 2012 this difference had been reduced to 46 times.)

Three countries, three elections, three possible routes of change in the epoch of Our America. In each case, the particular conditions governments face will determine the speed and depth of transformations, as well as the nature of political leadership. Each one represents, in its own way, the direction of a diverse post-neoliberalism, creative and realistic - today facing the challenge of once again electorally defeating a dressed-up right-wing which dreams of returning to the past.