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11-25-2003
Israel and the Palestinians
RAMON RODRIGUEZ
PH/FAX-805-524-5480
COPYRIGHT MMIII
There exists
currently in the Middle East and elsewhere an air of
expectancy, or an atmosphere of a palpable dread,
brought about by the eerie stillness in the violent
and volatile region of the world, with all parties
unsure if the interregnum is but the calm before
further storms and conflict or whether instead it is
a prelude to a lasting peace that in the current
circumstances seems tantalizingly well within reach.
This state of affairs is all the more surprising
because the so-called "roadmap to peace" turned out
instead to be but a roadmap to perdition, a dead-end
that only visited upon the Palestinians and the
Israelis further unimaginable carnage. May the
latter roadmap rest in peace.
The de facto
cease-fire offers both parties an opportunity to
restart their peace negotiations in an atmosphere
more conducive to success than to failure, unlike
previous such efforts. But the parties must seize
the day before the violence begins anew, which will
surely happen if the parties dally and dither,
giving their extremist opponents the chance to catch
their breath and to re-organize and re-equip. The
alternative plan to the "roadmap to peace" now being
circulated holds much promise, but its Israeli and
Palestinian supporters must act expeditiously in
order to take advantage of the pause in tit-for tat
violence. In doing so, they must restore the "vital
center" which heretofore has been obliterated by the
extremists on both sides of the West Bank, leaving
them with room to maneuver and in command of events.
The
extremists on both sides were only too happy to
continue their charade, empowering each other as
they were at the expense of the moderates. With each
suicide attack and the inevitable fearsome response
of the Israelis, the extremists could do as they
please both with one another and with their domestic
opponents. These circumstances left PM Sharon in
total control of the situation, which control he had
exercised ever since his (in)
famous visit to the Temple Mount
in 2000, which as it turns out was the launching of
his campaign for the premiership of Israel. On the
other hand, President Yasser Arafat was besieged and
under attack and surrounded by the Israelis earlier
this year, and at the same time he appeared to be at
the end of the line, and prepared to meet his maker,
with the Israelis only blocked from carrying through
on their threats against President Arafat by the
Americans, who for once did something in the Middle
East that was actually constructive, not
destructive.
But Mr.
Arafat survived and now his position appears
stronger than ever, his hold on power strengthened
after winning a power struggle with those who would
sideline him for good and would make him
"irrelevant". Now the Palestinians are led by a
government and a President with unquestioned
legitimacy and authority and can thus lead their
people in the looming peace negotiations from a
position of strength, something that the Americans
and the Israelis were hoping to avoid. Meanwhile, PM
Sharon's own position has deteriorated, and he has
lost support in the electorate as a result of the
Israeli people increasingly questioning the cost of
their unforgiving war of extermination against the
Palestinians. Therefore, Mr. Sharon's recent
pronouncements about demolishing certain settlements
in the West Bank are likely meant to protect his
left flank, and to appease the growing numbers of
his detractors. We should hope that the current
diplomatic thaw and informal truce continues, and
that the vital center is once again restored.
The
confluence of Sharon's weakness with Arafat's
re-empowerment, coupled with America's preoccupation
with other matters, has resulted in possibly the
last best chance for peace in the Middle East for
the current generation. The unilateralists and
militarists who predominate in Washington have in
the main been responsible for all the mischief and
mayhem in that chaotic part of the world, and their
preoccupation with Iraq, Afghanistan, etc means that
the Palestinians and the Israelis can work out their
differences between themselves, or perhaps under the
UN and the EU, without the undue influence and
interference of the Americans. While the
cat's away the mice will play.
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